Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 9 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 149.59
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 142.77
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 132.08
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 129.66
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 121.8
Brisbane Gods Zeta 113.49
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 88.83
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 85.75
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 76.62
New England Burning Pride Alpha 69.1
The U Canes Zeta 68.2
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 65.66
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 51.17
IC Incinerators Zeta 47.03
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 19.22
Canberra Strike Alpha 14.95
Big Island Growas Zeta -19.07
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -27.99
Tasmania Devils Alpha -35.71
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -37.26
Saipan Fighters Zeta -46.76
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -50.44
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -58.16
Perth Scorpions Alpha -70.49
Auckland Flames Alpha -72.93
Outback Astronauts Zeta -94.03
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -97.99
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -104.49
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -112.29
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -162.3
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -189.09
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -196.91
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk 10 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.860
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.800
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.76
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.756
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.666
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.659
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.66
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.632
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.621
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.61
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.587
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.578
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.565
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.527
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.519
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.513
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.487
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.481
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.473
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.435
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.42
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.41
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.389
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.379
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.368
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.345
The U Canes Zeta 0.34
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.334
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.24
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.237
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.2
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.14
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Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Las Vegas Outlaws (8-1-0) at FFLivewire Cans (8-1-0)
Alpha: New England Burning Pride (7-2-0) at Newcastle Bearcats (9-0-0)
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Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Alpha: Aussie Cardinals (3-6-0) at Perth Scorpions (2-7-0)
Zeta: also Las Vegas Outlaws (8-1-0) at FFLivewire Cans (8-1-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 9 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
