Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 8 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 127.72
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 126.88
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 123.41
FFLW Caninites Zeta 121.21
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 105.58
Brisbane Gods Zeta 94.11
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 71.44
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 69.99
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 65.67
IC Incinerators Zeta 63.25
New England Burning Pride Alpha 60.99
The U Canes Zeta 60.45
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 58.46
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 35.47
Canberra Strike Alpha 29.7
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.99
Big Island Growas Zeta -11.32
Tasmania Devils Alpha -17.48
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -19.87
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -19.89
Saipan Fighters Zeta -26.69
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -34.74
Perth Scorpions Alpha -63.86
Auckland Flames Alpha -67.72
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -72.91
Outback Astronauts Zeta -78.98
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -83.91
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -97.29
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -108.79
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -151.5
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -177.54
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -182.84
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk 9 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.874
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.801
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.785
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.744
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.734
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.733
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.720
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.654
The U Canes Zeta 0.642
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.603
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.603
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.589
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.587
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.558
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.518
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.517
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.483
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.482
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.442
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.413
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.411
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.397
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.397
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.358
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.346
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.280
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.267
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.266
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.256
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.215
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.199
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.126
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Las Vegas Outlaws (7-1-0) at IC Incinerators (6-2-0)
Alpha: Auckland Flames (2-6-0) at Brantford Mustangs (8-0-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Alpha: Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (4-4-0) at Tasmania Devils (3-5-0)
Zeta: also Las Vegas Outlaws (7-1-0) at IC Incinerators (6-2-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 8 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 127.72
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 126.88
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 123.41
FFLW Caninites Zeta 121.21
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 105.58
Brisbane Gods Zeta 94.11
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 71.44
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 69.99
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 65.67
IC Incinerators Zeta 63.25
New England Burning Pride Alpha 60.99
The U Canes Zeta 60.45
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 58.46
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 35.47
Canberra Strike Alpha 29.7
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.99
Big Island Growas Zeta -11.32
Tasmania Devils Alpha -17.48
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -19.87
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -19.89
Saipan Fighters Zeta -26.69
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -34.74
Perth Scorpions Alpha -63.86
Auckland Flames Alpha -67.72
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -72.91
Outback Astronauts Zeta -78.98
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -83.91
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -97.29
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -108.79
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -151.5
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -177.54
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -182.84
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk 9 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.874
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.801
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.785
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.744
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.734
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.733
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.720
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.654
The U Canes Zeta 0.642
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.603
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.603
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.589
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.587
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.558
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.518
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.517
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.483
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.482
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.442
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.413
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.411
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.397
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.397
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.358
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.346
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.280
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.267
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.266
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.256
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.215
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.199
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.126
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Las Vegas Outlaws (7-1-0) at IC Incinerators (6-2-0)
Alpha: Auckland Flames (2-6-0) at Brantford Mustangs (8-0-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Alpha: Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (4-4-0) at Tasmania Devils (3-5-0)
Zeta: also Las Vegas Outlaws (7-1-0) at IC Incinerators (6-2-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 8 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
Last edited Jun 29, 2008 11:14:32
