Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk15 games...
New England Burning Pride Alpha 135.2
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 120.4
Brisbane Gods Zeta 105.2
Canberra Strike Alpha 101.0
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 99.8
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 89.3
The U Canes Zeta 84.9
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 84.7
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 73.6
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 68.5
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 63.0
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 57.2
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 55.1
IC Incinerators Zeta 32.0
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 5.7
Auckland Flames Alpha 3.7
FFLivewire Cans Zeta -2.8
Perth Scorpions Alpha -21.1
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -32.9
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -36.7
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -38.1
Sydney Seahawks Alpha -46.1
Saipan Fighters Zeta -48.0
Big Island Growas Zeta -48.2
Outback Astronauts Zeta -86.1
Tasmania Devils Alpha -86.2
Sparta Spartans Alpha -97.3
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -100.1
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -122.9
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -131.0
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha -134.7
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta -147.2
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk16 inter-conference games based on Elo data...
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.764
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.749
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.709
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.686
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.675
The U Canes Zeta 0.663
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.655
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.625
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.590
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.588
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.570
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.564
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.524
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.524
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 0.512
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.508
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.492
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.488
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 0.477
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.476
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.436
Sparta Spartans Alpha 0.430
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.412
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.410
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.375
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.345
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.337
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.325
Sydney Seahawks Alpha 0.314
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.291
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha 0.251
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta 0.236
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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
New England Burning Pride (14-1-0) at Tongan Crimson Auha (12-3-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference):
Brisbane Gods (13-2-0) at Newcastle Bearcats (13-2-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 15 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.
New England Burning Pride Alpha 135.2
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 120.4
Brisbane Gods Zeta 105.2
Canberra Strike Alpha 101.0
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 99.8
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 89.3
The U Canes Zeta 84.9
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 84.7
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 73.6
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 68.5
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 63.0
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 57.2
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 55.1
IC Incinerators Zeta 32.0
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 5.7
Auckland Flames Alpha 3.7
FFLivewire Cans Zeta -2.8
Perth Scorpions Alpha -21.1
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -32.9
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -36.7
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -38.1
Sydney Seahawks Alpha -46.1
Saipan Fighters Zeta -48.0
Big Island Growas Zeta -48.2
Outback Astronauts Zeta -86.1
Tasmania Devils Alpha -86.2
Sparta Spartans Alpha -97.3
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -100.1
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -122.9
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -131.0
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha -134.7
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta -147.2
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk16 inter-conference games based on Elo data...
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.764
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.749
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.709
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.686
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.675
The U Canes Zeta 0.663
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.655
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.625
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.590
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.588
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.570
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.564
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.524
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.524
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 0.512
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.508
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.492
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.488
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 0.477
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.476
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.436
Sparta Spartans Alpha 0.430
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.412
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.410
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.375
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.345
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.337
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.325
Sydney Seahawks Alpha 0.314
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.291
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha 0.251
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta 0.236
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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
New England Burning Pride (14-1-0) at Tongan Crimson Auha (12-3-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference):
Brisbane Gods (13-2-0) at Newcastle Bearcats (13-2-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 15 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.