Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk15 games...

New England Burning Pride Alpha 135.2
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 120.4
Brisbane Gods Zeta 105.2
Canberra Strike Alpha 101.0
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 99.8
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 89.3
The U Canes Zeta 84.9
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 84.7
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 73.6
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 68.5
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 63.0
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 57.2
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 55.1
IC Incinerators Zeta 32.0
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 5.7
Auckland Flames Alpha 3.7
FFLivewire Cans Zeta -2.8
Perth Scorpions Alpha -21.1
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -32.9
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -36.7
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -38.1
Sydney Seahawks Alpha -46.1
Saipan Fighters Zeta -48.0
Big Island Growas Zeta -48.2
Outback Astronauts Zeta -86.1
Tasmania Devils Alpha -86.2
Sparta Spartans Alpha -97.3
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -100.1
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -122.9
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -131.0
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha -134.7
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta -147.2

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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk16 inter-conference games based on Elo data...

Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.764
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.749
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.709
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.686
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.675
The U Canes Zeta 0.663
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.655
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.625
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.590
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.588
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.570
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.564
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.524
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.524
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 0.512
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.508
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.492
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.488
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 0.477
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.476
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.436
Sparta Spartans Alpha 0.430
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.412
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.410
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.375
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.345
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.337
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.325
Sydney Seahawks Alpha 0.314
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.291
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha 0.251
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta 0.236

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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
New England Burning Pride (14-1-0) at Tongan Crimson Auha (12-3-0)

Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference):
Brisbane Gods (13-2-0) at Newcastle Bearcats (13-2-0)

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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 15 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.

notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.

Wow, awesome, thanks for the list. The Pride has accomplished its goal of taking 2 of the last 3. If we want home field, though, we gotta win this next game, and it doesn't look like it's going to be easy.

It's interesting that 4 of the top 5 are from Alpha.

Originally posted by HaplosDog
It's interesting that 4 of the top 5 are from Alpha.

I think this is because Alpha is more top heavy, with the first 3-5 seeds being heads and shoulders above the rest of Alpha, and Zeta is more steady amongst the playoff teams, what with our 8 seed Incinerators beating both the Vampires and the Crimson Auha, and the 6 seed Tiger Sharks beating the Gods just this last game.

We'll see how the conferences match up in the next game with

Gods vs Bearcats
Crimson Auha vs Burning Pride
Vampires vs Strike
Incinerators vs Bandits

Originally posted by BigD123
Originally posted by HaplosDog

It's interesting that 4 of the top 5 are from Alpha.

I think this is because Alpha is more top heavy, with the first 3-5 seeds being heads and shoulders above the rest of Alpha, and Zeta is more steady amongst the playoff teams, what with our 8 seed Incinerators beating both the Vampires and the Crimson Auha, and the 6 seed Tiger Sharks beating the Gods just this last game.

We'll see how the conferences match up in the next game with

Gods vs Bearcats
Crimson Auha vs Burning Pride
Vampires vs Strike
Incinerators vs Bandits

I think I agree with that.

Originally posted by HaplosDog
Originally posted by BigD123

Originally posted by HaplosDog


It's interesting that 4 of the top 5 are from Alpha.

I think this is because Alpha is more top heavy, with the first 3-5 seeds being heads and shoulders above the rest of Alpha, and Zeta is more steady amongst the playoff teams, what with our 8 seed Incinerators beating both the Vampires and the Crimson Auha, and the 6 seed Tiger Sharks beating the Gods just this last game.

We'll see how the conferences match up in the next game with

Gods vs Bearcats
Crimson Auha vs Burning Pride
Vampires vs Strike
Incinerators vs Bandits

I think I agree with that.

Yeah, imo that's a pretty fair assessment. I definitely don't believe that 4 of the 5 best pro teams are in Alpha. We have four excellent good teams (Burning Pride, Bandits, Strike, Bearcats), two very good teams (Flying Monkeys, Sea Turtles), and everyone else. Zeta, on the other hand, seems to have 8 strong teams.

I hope it's that Zeta really just sucks so then we win tomorrow because otherwise I am not sure how that is going to happen.

just thinking about it...i kinda of like how they keep the interleague game as the last one...adds a nice twist to the end of the regular season....

Zeta is actually pretty competitive, Gods & Auha are good, with us, the U Canes, and Vampires right on their tail.

Hell, we have a 4-way tie for 2nd place .

Just wait till we meet one of these games wondertramp.

My Skills + Your wackness = total and utter domination for Holliday.

LOL...dont make me laugh kevins....you want to talk about wackness...your wack 845 yards and 5 tds...wouldnt even crack the top 10 in receiving in zeta conference...for the most part the receivers i play against are almost always better then you...you come over here...you wouldnt be a number 1 receiver for any of our playoff teams...

The Tiger Sharks are on a roll.

We like it under the radar. Even after upsetting the best team in our conference right before the playoffs.

Excellent report.

Thank you.

There are some good teams in both conferences