Calculated Elo Ratings for the Alpha conference after wk14 games...
New England Burning Pride 123.6
Brisbane Bandits 113.1
Canberra Strike 112.7
Newcastle Bearcats 92.1
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 56.9
Fiji Sea Turtles 47.1
Carabao Buffalos -2.3
Auckland Flames -5.5
Perth Scorpions -11.1
Aussie Cardinals -29.4
Sydney Seahawks -38.5
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels -43.8
Tasmania Devils -75.2
Sparta Spartans -88.1
Hollywood Decepticons -123.0
Midd-West Mustangs -128.6
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk15 games based on Elo data...
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 0.744
Brisbane Bandits 0.694
Newcastle Bearcats 0.680
Carabao Buffalos 0.667
Auckland Flames 0.617
Fiji Sea Turtles 0.583
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels 0.545
New England Burning Pride 0.516
Canberra Strike 0.484
Tasmania Devils 0.455
Perth Scorpions 0.417
Sparta Spartans 0.383
Hollywood Decepticons 0.333
Sydney Seahawks 0.320
Aussie Cardinals 0.306
Midd-West Mustangs 0.256
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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings)
New England Burning Pride (13-1-0) at Canberra Strike (13-1-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference)
also New England Burning Pride (13-1-0) at Canberra Strike (13-1-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 14 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis. Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played, the only way to compare different conferences/leagues at present would be to largely assume that all conferences/leagues have similar overall team strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.
New England Burning Pride 123.6
Brisbane Bandits 113.1
Canberra Strike 112.7
Newcastle Bearcats 92.1
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 56.9
Fiji Sea Turtles 47.1
Carabao Buffalos -2.3
Auckland Flames -5.5
Perth Scorpions -11.1
Aussie Cardinals -29.4
Sydney Seahawks -38.5
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels -43.8
Tasmania Devils -75.2
Sparta Spartans -88.1
Hollywood Decepticons -123.0
Midd-West Mustangs -128.6
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk15 games based on Elo data...
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 0.744
Brisbane Bandits 0.694
Newcastle Bearcats 0.680
Carabao Buffalos 0.667
Auckland Flames 0.617
Fiji Sea Turtles 0.583
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels 0.545
New England Burning Pride 0.516
Canberra Strike 0.484
Tasmania Devils 0.455
Perth Scorpions 0.417
Sparta Spartans 0.383
Hollywood Decepticons 0.333
Sydney Seahawks 0.320
Aussie Cardinals 0.306
Midd-West Mustangs 0.256
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings)
New England Burning Pride (13-1-0) at Canberra Strike (13-1-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference)
also New England Burning Pride (13-1-0) at Canberra Strike (13-1-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 14 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis. Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played, the only way to compare different conferences/leagues at present would be to largely assume that all conferences/leagues have similar overall team strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.
