Calculated Elo Ratings for the Alpha conference after wk13 games...
Brisbane Bandits 125.6
New England Burning Pride 111.1
Canberra Strike 105.1
Newcastle Bearcats 86.6
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 46.3
Fiji Sea Turtles 37.1
Auckland Flames 5.1
Carabao Buffalos -12.0
Aussie Cardinals -19.3
Perth Scorpions -21.7
Sydney Seahawks -30.9
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels -53.8
Tasmania Devils -64.7
Sparta Spartans -78.3
Hollywood Decepticons -113.1
Midd-West Mustangs -123.0
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk14 games based on Elo data...
Newcastle Bearcats 0.770
Canberra Strike 0.686
Carabao Buffalos 0.594
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels 0.585
Fiji Sea Turtles 0.580
Perth Scorpions 0.562
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 0.559
Brisbane Bandits 0.521
New England Burning Pride 0.479
Auckland Flames 0.441
Tasmania Devils 0.438
Aussie Cardinals 0.420
Hollywood Decepticons 0.416
Sparta Spartans 0.406
Sydney Seahawks 0.314
Midd-West Mustangs 0.230
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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings)
Brisbane Bandits (13-0-0) at New England Burning Pride (12-1-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference)
also Brisbane Bandits (13-0-0) at New England Burning Pride (12-1-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 13 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis. Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played, the only way to compare different conferences/leagues at present would be to largely assume that all conferences/leagues have similar overall team strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.
