Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Alpha conference after wk12 games...

Brisbane Bandits 118.2
New England Burning Pride 100.9
Canberra Strike 99.8
Newcastle Bearcats 76.7
Fiji Sea Turtles 47.2
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 35.6
Auckland Flames 15.0
Carabao Buffalos -1.3
Aussie Cardinals -6.3
Sydney Seahawks -23.6
Perth Scorpions -34.6
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels -65.8
Sparta Spartans -66.3
Tasmania Devils -75.8
Hollywood Decepticons -102.0
Midd-West Mustangs -117.7

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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk13 games based on Elo data...

Canberra Strike 0.778
Brisbane Bandits 0.693
Newcastle Bearcats 0.588
New England Burning Pride 0.577
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 0.553
Aussie Cardinals 0.541
Tasmania Devils 0.538
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels 0.500
Sparta Spartans 0.500
Hollywood Decepticons 0.462
Perth Scorpions 0.459
Carabao Buffalos 0.447
Fiji Sea Turtles 0.423
Auckland Flames 0.412
Sydney Seahawks 0.307
Midd-West Mustangs 0.222

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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings)
New England Burning Pride (11-1-0) at Fiji Sea Turtles (8-4-0)

Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference)
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (2-9-1) at Sparta Spartans (3-9-0)

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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 12 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis. Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played, the only way to compare different conferences/leagues at present would be to largely assume that all conferences/leagues have similar overall team strength.

notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.

Haha. We're awesome.

interesting methodology, but i don't know if Elo ratings can really be applied to goal line blitz. i'm mainly skeptical about the predicted win probabilities in games between top-notch and bottom-notch teams. for example, i can't see the mustangs beating the strike more than twenty times out of a hundred, not when the final score differential will almost certainly be more than 40 points next game. at this point, the difference in talent between those two teams make the strike's winning probability close to 100%, imo.

Love your work even if we weren't #1.

It totally beats the "1A" and "1B" system.

gosh man this formula has something against us man. the bandits are #1

Originally posted by Daman
gosh man this formula has something against us man. the bandits are #1

According to his formula you guys are the top team. But again, the lack of intelligence, and basic reading comprehension...as well as the bandit's players obvious blind bias, has made them look foolish yet again....

Originally posted by Ballbright
Originally posted by Daman

gosh man this formula has something against us man. the bandits are #1

According to his formula you guys are the top team. But again, the lack of intelligence, and basic reading comprehension...as well as the bandit's players obvious blind bias, has made them look foolish yet again....




LMFAO!!!



DMP