Calculated Elo Ratings for the Alpha conference after wk11 games...
Brisbane Bandits 113.1
New England Burning Pride 92.9
Canberra Strike 90.0
Newcastle Bearcats 66.7
Fiji Sea Turtles 37.0
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 26.4
Auckland Flames 24.8
Carabao Buffalos 8.7
Sydney Seahawks -13.3
Aussie Cardinals -16.6
Perth Scorpions -26.6
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels -56.6
Tasmania Devils -65.5
Sparta Spartans -77.9
Hollywood Decepticons -90.4
Midd-West Mustangs -112.5
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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk12 based on Elo data...
Brisbane Bandits 0.786
New England Burning Pride 0.665
Emerald City Flying Monkeys 0.617
Canberra Strike 0.593
Newcastle Bearcats 0.583
Fiji Sea Turtles 0.572
Aussie Cardinals 0.570
Sparta Spartans 0.518
Hollywood Decepticons 0.482
Tasmania Devils 0.430
Sydney Seahawks 0.428
Carabao Buffalos 0.417
Auckland Flames 0.407
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels 0.383
Perth Scorpions 0.335
Midd-West Mustangs 0.214
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Upcoming Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings)
Canberra Strike (10-1-0) at Auckland Flames (7-4-0)
Upcoming Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference)
Sparta Spartans (2-9-0) at Hollywood Decepticons (1-10-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of only 11 points(games). I prefer data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis. Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played, the only way to compare different conferences/leagues at present would be to largely assume that all conferences/leagues have similar overall team strength.
notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.
